MODEL VERDICT
Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $54.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $53.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $55.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $54.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $51.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $450.70 | +731.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $321.45 | +492.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $815.62 | +1404.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $406.82 | +650.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $393.71 | +626.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $442.42 | +716.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $127.83 | +135.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $336.30 | +520.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $338.82 | +524.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $787.92 | +1353.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $407.34 | +651.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $418.88 | +672.6% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $292 | $345 | $398 | $451 | $504 |
| Conservative (12%) | $304 | $359 | $415 | $470 | $525 |
| Base Case (17.8%) | $321 | $379 | $438 | $496 | $555 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $338 | $399 | $461 | $522 | $584 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.63 | 3.07 | 2.44 | 16.07 | 6.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 124.27 | 10.49 | 2.49 | 584.91 | 257.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.44 | 8.62 | 2.32 | 53.62 | 21.42 |
| P/FCF | 4.62 | 2.90 | 1.13 | 10.18 | 3.66 |
| P/FFO | 9.64 | 5.00 | 2.25 | 33.36 | 12.00 |
| P/TBV | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.41 | 0.91 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 6.29 | 2.96 | 2.39 | 12.28 | 4.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.79 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 1.11 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TCOM's fair value at $418.88 vs the current price of $54.22, implying +672.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $418.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $360.08 (P10) to $766.10 (P90), with a median of $505.06.
TCOM's current P/E of 14.9x compares to the industry median of 32.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -54.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover TCOM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $75.00 (range: $75.00 — $75.00), implying +38.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 52.2% is 17.4 percentage points above the 5-year average (8.6%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$31. (2) Multiple compression: TCOM trades at the 910th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TCOM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (8.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4250.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.