BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC)
Valuation Overview•Is BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 15/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
TCPC struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-385.7%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.9M | -467.7% | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA | -$253K | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$16.3M | -40.9% | -112.8% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.19 | -32.9% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $42.3M | -47.1% | -8.8% | +4.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | -76.5% | 1.1% | 40.7% | 66.6% |
| Operating Margin | -385.7% | -65.9% | -11.7% | 30.0% |
| Net Margin | -515.9% | -56.4% | -18.7% | 13.0% |
| FCF Margin | 591.8% | 417.2% | 262.8% | 123.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.20 | $0.21 | +5.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.26 | $0.26 | -0.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.33 | $0.32 | -3.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.34 | $0.32 | -5.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.34 | $0.36 | +5.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.38 | $0.38 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.40 | $0.36 | -10.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.42 | $0.42 | +0.0% |
Total return is -45.9% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -66.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -36.8% | -44.1% | — |
| 1Y | -45.9% | -66.8% | +11.7% |
| 3YCAGR | -12.5% | -31.4% | +37.2% |
| 5YCAGR | -7.2% | -18.5% | +46.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +1.0% | -12.6% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $5.27 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $8.00 (implying +146.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. displays poor financial health with a composite quality score of 15/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -1.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -1.0%.
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. pays a 34.6% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.1% buyback yield.
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -467.7% 1Y revenue growth and -32.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 13 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +146.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. include: -60.3% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.76x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.