MODEL VERDICT
USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $7.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $7.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $7.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $7.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $6.98 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $1.86 | -74.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $13.27 | +79.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $0.39 | -94.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $8.35 | +13.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $1.97 | -73.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $4.75 | -35.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $20.30 | +175.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $19.55 | +164.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $0.34 | -95.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $7.72 | +4.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.48 | -25.7% | 100% | 62 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 509× | 557× | 605× (Current) | 653× | 701× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates TDAY's fair value at $5.48 vs the current price of $7.38, implying -25.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.88 (P10) to $10.02 (P90), with a median of $7.92.
TDAY's current P/E of 604.9x compares to the industry median of 31.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +1799.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover TDAY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.55 (range: $5.10 — $6.00), implying -24.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TDAY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.