MODEL VERDICT
Teck Resources Limited (TECK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $57.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $60.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $59.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $58.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $56.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $53.15 | -8.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $79.22 | +36.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $46.07 | -20.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $34.60 | -40.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $89.39 | +54.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $90.40 | +56.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $46.00 | -20.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.67 | +30.6% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $71 | $77 | $82 | $88 | $94 |
| Conservative (7%) | $72 | $78 | $84 | $90 | $96 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $75 | $81 | $87 | $93 | $100 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $77 | $84 | $90 | $96 | $103 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.92 | 9.19 | 5.43 | 51.96 | 19.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 108.15 | 8.40 | 4.34 | 411.47 | 202.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.61 | 9.83 | 3.28 | 28.55 | 10.76 |
| P/FCF | 225.00 | 142.13 | 8.05 | 607.69 | 262.89 |
| P/FFO | 8.00 | 7.18 | 3.58 | 15.01 | 3.93 |
| P/TBV | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.69 | 0.76 | 0.44 | 0.91 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.75 | 1.22 | 0.81 | 3.43 | 0.94 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates TECK's fair value at $75.67 vs the current price of $57.95, implying +30.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.75 (P10) to $135.57 (P90), with a median of $86.10.
TECK's current P/E of 27.8x compares to the industry median of 16.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +70.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover TECK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $64.50 (range: $62.00 — $67.00), implying +11.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TECK trades at the 4290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TECK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3100.0% to approximately $40. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.