MODEL VERDICT
TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $207.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $214.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $246.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $234.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $229.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $342.08 | +64.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $294.56 | +41.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $225.90 | +8.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $361.27 | +74.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $277.28 | +33.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $345.79 | +66.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $296.85 | +43.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $291.93 | +40.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $219.98 | +6.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $361.27 | +74.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $269.44 | +29.8% | 100% | 84 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $179 | $199 | $218 | $237 | $256 |
| Conservative (7%) | $184 | $203 | $223 | $243 | $262 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $190 | $210 | $230 | $251 | $271 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $196 | $217 | $238 | $259 | $280 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.68 | 20.09 | 13.84 | 36.93 | 8.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.54 | 20.34 | 14.71 | 77.28 | 22.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.76 | 13.61 | 11.28 | 18.11 | 2.79 |
| P/FCF | 21.73 | 21.24 | 15.79 | 28.07 | 4.46 |
| P/FFO | 25.74 | 16.47 | 10.99 | 85.52 | 26.83 |
| P/TBV | 12.23 | 10.08 | 8.02 | 20.14 | 4.55 |
| P/AFFO | 21.74 | 20.00 | 13.23 | 39.01 | 9.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.06 | 3.82 | 3.08 | 5.34 | 0.84 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.02 | 2.79 | 2.29 | 3.98 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TEL's fair value at $269.44 vs the current price of $207.62, implying +29.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $269.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $236.41 (P10) to $328.95 (P90), with a median of $281.40.
TEL's current P/E of 33.7x compares to the industry median of 36.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -8.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.7x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover TEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $262.57 (range: $226.00 — $302.00), implying +26.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TEL trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TEL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5010.0% to approximately $104. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.