MODEL VERDICT
Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (TEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $42.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $39.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $39.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $38.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $39.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $46.65 | +10.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $38.20 | -9.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $68.74 | +62.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $62.67 | +47.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $135.07 | +218.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $61.46 | +45.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $92.05 | +117.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $68.74 | +62.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $93.62 | +120.8% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (30%) | $26 | $39 | $52 | $66 | $79 |
| Conservative (49%) | $30 | $45 | $60 | $75 | $90 |
| Base Case (75.7%) | $35 | $53 | $71 | $88 | $106 |
| Bull Case (102%) | $41 | $61 | $81 | $102 | $122 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.35 | 3.13 | 2.46 | 72.67 | 34.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.72 | 7.35 | 4.57 | 27.90 | 10.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.89 | 7.70 | 3.51 | 212.13 | 77.75 |
| P/FCF | 11.58 | 6.77 | 4.43 | 23.54 | 10.43 |
| P/FFO | 3.17 | 2.06 | 1.46 | 7.10 | 2.32 |
| P/TBV | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.75 | 0.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.75 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.26 | 1.84 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates TEN's fair value at $93.62 vs the current price of $42.40, implying +120.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $93.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.83 (P10) to $238.37 (P90), with a median of $98.11.
TEN's current P/E of 8.4x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -38.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.3x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover TEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.00 (range: $50.00 — $50.00), implying +17.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (18.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 21620.0% to approximately $134. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.