MODEL VERDICT
Telecom Argentina S.A. (TEO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $29181.04 | +246153.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $31694.91 | +267367.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $4359.85 | +36692.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $9967.24 | +84011.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $31817.47 | +268401.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $29206.89 | +246371.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17669.47 | +149009.4% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9778 | $12222 | $17111 | $22000 | $26889 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10013 | $12516 | $17522 | $22529 | $27535 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10342 | $12927 | $18098 | $23269 | $28440 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $10671 | $13339 | $18674 | $24009 | $29345 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.51 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 1.26 | 0.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.31 | 1.73 | 0.16 | 8.01 | 3.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.14 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 7.75 | 2.85 |
| P/FCF | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/FFO | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/TBV | 0.25 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 1.29 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 5.36 | 0.52 | 0.34 | 14.93 | 6.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates TEO's fair value at $17669.47 vs the current price of $11.85, implying +149009.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17669.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13173.10 (P10) to $20106.89 (P90), with a median of $16469.95.
TEO's current P/E of 7.0x compares to the industry median of 12.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -43.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover TEO with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $12.80 (range: $8.60 — $17.00), implying +8.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TEO trades at the 2120th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TEO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.