MODEL VERDICT
TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $15.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $14.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $14.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $14.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $14.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $4.25 | -71.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $6.75 | -55.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $9.91 | -34.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $6.86 | -54.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $4.25 | -71.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $3.44 | -77.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.29 | -38.2% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Base Case (1.3%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.61 | 56.50 | 41.81 | 70.29 | 9.73 |
| EV/EBIT | 83.21 | 79.48 | 71.61 | 95.63 | 9.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 66.70 | 65.89 | 57.46 | 80.09 | 8.36 |
| P/FCF | 58.51 | 52.75 | 40.99 | 110.85 | 24.18 |
| P/FFO | 41.52 | 42.17 | 32.83 | 52.90 | 6.53 |
| P/TBV | 2.47 | 2.19 | 1.89 | 3.23 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 43.26 | 43.37 | 36.50 | 54.91 | 6.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.45 | 2.18 | 1.88 | 3.22 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.11 | 9.27 | 4.62 | 11.20 | 2.80 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TFSL's fair value at $9.29 vs the current price of $15.03, implying -38.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.19 (P10) to $11.17 (P90), with a median of $10.16.
TFSL's current P/E of 47.0x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +253.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover TFSL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying -0.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TFSL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4700.0% to approximately $22. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.