MODEL VERDICT
Tecnoglass Inc. (TGLS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $42.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $45.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $44.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $43.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $43.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $56.22 | +32.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $96.55 | +126.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $77.35 | +81.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $15.92 | -62.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $83.68 | +96.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $17.13 | -59.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $438.86 | +930.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $69.19 | +62.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $67.00 | +57.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $77.24 | +81.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $11.89 | -72.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.82 | +78.1% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (19%) | $32 | $41 | $49 | $57 | $65 |
| Conservative (30%) | $36 | $44 | $53 | $62 | $71 |
| Base Case (46.3%) | $40 | $50 | $60 | $70 | $80 |
| Bull Case (63%) | $44 | $56 | $67 | $78 | $89 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.14 | 14.71 | 9.41 | 23.13 | 4.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.19 | 9.65 | 6.40 | 15.92 | 3.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.61 | 7.85 | 5.53 | 14.61 | 3.05 |
| P/FCF | 100.82 | 35.68 | 6.04 | 515.21 | 183.80 |
| P/FFO | 11.40 | 10.61 | 7.21 | 19.85 | 4.46 |
| P/TBV | 4.03 | 4.17 | 1.78 | 6.18 | 1.63 |
| P/AFFO | 21.76 | 17.13 | 12.25 | 34.45 | 9.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.71 | 3.96 | 1.54 | 5.91 | 1.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.21 | 2.39 | 0.85 | 4.19 | 1.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TGLS's fair value at $75.82 vs the current price of $42.57, implying +78.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.41 (P10) to $72.18 (P90), with a median of $58.87.
TGLS's current P/E of 12.4x compares to the industry median of 22.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -45.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover TGLS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $55.00 (range: $55.00 — $55.00), implying +29.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TGLS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7880.0% to approximately $76. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.