MODEL VERDICT
Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $29.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $31.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $33.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $64719.98 | +221013.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $156646.68 | +535078.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $65534.30 | +223795.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $40913.30 | +139679.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $219693.86 | +750476.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $96620.70 | +330001.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $304637.08 | +1040682.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $109624.21 | +374427.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $88646.78 | +302758.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $63569.60 | +217083.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $40901.10 | +139637.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94317.36 | +322132.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (69%) | $49460 | $60452 | $71443 | $82434 | $93425 |
| Conservative (112%) | $62090 | $75888 | $89686 | $103484 | $117282 |
| Base Case (172.7%) | $79771 | $97498 | $115225 | $132951 | $150678 |
| Bull Case (233%) | $97468 | $119128 | $140788 | $162447 | $184107 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.67 | 0.86 | 0.41 | 6.10 | 2.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.89 | 0.70 | 0.36 | 2.35 | 0.66 |
| P/FCF | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/FFO | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/AFFO | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.95 | 0.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Div Yield | 25.19 | 18.02 | 0.00 | 57.54 | 29.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 27 valuation metrics, the model estimates TGS's fair value at $94317.36 vs the current price of $29.27, implying +322132.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94317.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60643.48 (P10) to $73742.45 (P90), with a median of $67136.00.
TGS's current P/E of 12.5x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -37.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover TGS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TGS trades at the 1430th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TGS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (35.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 112580.0% to approximately $359. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.