MODEL VERDICT
TreeHouse Foods, Inc. (THS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $24.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $24.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $24.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $24.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $24.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $20.44 | -16.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $6.98 | -71.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $20.52 | -16.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $15.73 | -35.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $57.44 | +135.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $57.68 | +136.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $6.96 | -71.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $20.51 | -16.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.82 | +22.1% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 40× | 44× | 48× (Current) | 52× | 56× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $28 | $30 |
| Conservative (7%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $22 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $23 | $25 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 96.67 | 68.88 | 44.10 | 177.04 | 70.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 51.30 | 36.40 | 22.88 | 104.06 | 32.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.86 | 16.12 | 12.50 | 40.51 | 11.52 |
| P/FCF | 33.19 | 11.91 | 7.75 | 141.68 | 53.27 |
| P/FFO | 13.74 | 11.99 | 10.62 | 17.66 | 3.46 |
| P/AFFO | 40.95 | 45.44 | 19.04 | 53.87 | 15.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 1.31 | 1.19 | 1.64 | 0.16 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.84 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates THS's fair value at $29.82 vs the current price of $24.43, implying +22.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.88 (P10) to $37.06 (P90), with a median of $24.66.
THS's current P/E of 47.9x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +250.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 96.7x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover THS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $23.00 (range: $23.00 — $23.00), implying -5.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for THS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.