MODEL VERDICT
Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $28.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $27.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $45.10 | +62.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $42.78 | +53.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $42.26 | +51.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $39.20 | +40.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $43.01 | +54.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $44.86 | +61.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $75.92 | +172.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $69.89 | +151.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $42.36 | +52.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $53.87 | +93.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.30 | +66.4% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $24 | $29 | $33 | $37 |
| Conservative (7%) | $21 | $25 | $29 | $33 | $38 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $22 | $26 | $30 | $34 | $39 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $22 | $27 | $31 | $36 | $40 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.83 | 16.64 | 12.38 | 29.91 | 6.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.06 | 12.55 | 11.80 | 15.23 | 1.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.68 | 8.99 | 7.57 | 98.63 | 33.94 |
| P/FCF | 13.94 | 13.57 | 6.35 | 23.59 | 5.27 |
| P/FFO | 9.08 | 8.75 | 7.52 | 10.89 | 1.32 |
| P/TBV | 10.23 | 4.20 | 1.58 | 45.01 | 15.52 |
| P/AFFO | 13.74 | 13.45 | 11.38 | 17.66 | 2.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.11 | 1.88 | 1.37 | 2.93 | 0.61 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.45 | 1.19 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TILE's fair value at $46.30 vs the current price of $27.83, implying +66.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.08 (P10) to $60.89 (P90), with a median of $45.88.
TILE's current P/E of 14.2x compares to the industry median of 21.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -34.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover TILE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying +29.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TILE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 330.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.