MODEL VERDICT
Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $21.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $21.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $20.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $19.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $20.27 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $18.17 | -14.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $83.76 | +294.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $93.36 | +340.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $142.41 | +571.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $122.90 | +479.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $83.76 | +294.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.74 | +205.1% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.62 | 13.61 | 2.87 | 39.17 | 15.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 69.28 | 18.36 | 7.35 | 325.53 | 126.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.77 | 13.38 | 6.22 | 30.62 | 8.44 |
| P/FCF | 8.70 | 6.08 | 4.20 | 18.43 | 6.62 |
| P/FFO | 39.84 | 8.46 | 2.23 | 201.18 | 79.13 |
| P/TBV | 1.30 | 1.28 | 0.59 | 2.13 | 0.61 |
| P/AFFO | 12.41 | 14.62 | 3.97 | 21.58 | 6.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 1.21 | 0.48 | 2.03 | 0.63 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 0.53 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates TITN's fair value at $64.74 vs the current price of $21.22, implying +205.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.09 (P10) to $76.61 (P90), with a median of $58.67.
TITN's current P/E of -8.9x compares to the industry median of 24.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -136.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover TITN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $21.00 — $21.00), implying -1.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TITN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.