MODEL VERDICT
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $156.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $157.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $160.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $160.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $161.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $103.62 | -33.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $90.95 | -42.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $106.10 | -32.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $75.43 | -51.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $95.95 | -38.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $69.22 | -55.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $296.95 | +89.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $88.00 | -43.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $87.63 | -44.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $106.34 | -32.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $75.61 | -51.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $179.36 | +14.4% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (52%) | $193 | $216 | $238 | $260 | $282 |
| Conservative (85%) | $235 | $262 | $289 | $316 | $343 |
| Base Case (130.8%) | $293 | $327 | $360 | $394 | $428 |
| Bull Case (177%) | $351 | $391 | $432 | $472 | $513 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 172.17 | 31.59 | 25.58 | 1019.06 | 373.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 70.15 | 24.95 | 20.61 | 343.65 | 120.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.49 | 21.74 | 17.41 | 66.93 | 17.57 |
| P/FCF | 36.16 | 36.33 | 23.09 | 48.08 | 8.56 |
| P/FFO | 35.15 | 25.75 | 20.23 | 95.96 | 26.96 |
| P/TBV | 17.53 | 17.48 | 14.31 | 21.42 | 2.33 |
| P/AFFO | 64.31 | 37.68 | 28.72 | 234.66 | 75.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 17.25 | 17.31 | 14.08 | 20.90 | 2.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.53 | 2.58 | 1.99 | 3.11 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TJX's fair value at $179.36 vs the current price of $156.83, implying +14.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $179.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $102.20 (P10) to $346.88 (P90), with a median of $180.33.
TJX's current P/E of 32.1x compares to the industry median of 21.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +47.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 172.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
53 analysts cover TJX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $172.00 (range: $150.00 — $193.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (46), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TJX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 44690.0% to approximately $858. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.