MODEL VERDICT
Teekay Corporation (TK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $13.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $1.81 | -86.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $43.84 | +225.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $23.74 | +76.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $58.82 | +337.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $67.78 | +403.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $79.45 | +490.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $66.12 | +391.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $50.91 | +278.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $23.74 | +76.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $58.50 | +334.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.10 | +190.5% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $10 | $13 | $16 | $19 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $11 | $14 | $17 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $11 | $14 | $17 | $20 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $8 | $11 | $15 | $18 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.69 | 5.43 | 4.64 | 39.25 | 17.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.48 | 3.06 | 0.07 | 23.03 | 10.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.15 | 3.80 | 0.06 | 113.27 | 44.83 |
| P/FCF | 2.23 | 1.80 | 0.23 | 5.88 | 1.95 |
| P/FFO | 2.87 | 2.80 | 1.69 | 4.48 | 0.90 |
| P/TBV | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.39 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 4.65 | 3.47 | 2.86 | 9.90 | 2.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.12 | 0.53 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TK's fair value at $39.10 vs the current price of $13.46, implying +190.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.42 (P10) to $58.50 (P90), with a median of $38.56.
TK's current P/E of 9.5x compares to the industry median of 16.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -43.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.7x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover TK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (9.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7550.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.