MODEL VERDICT
Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (TKC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $334.97 | +5175.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $656.11 | +10232.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $198.17 | +3020.8% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $224.94 | +3442.4% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $308.47 | +4757.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $493.29 | +7668.3% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $1933.73 | +30352.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $565.52 | +8805.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $335.26 | +5179.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $341.16 | +5272.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (23%) | $232 | $298 | $364 | $430 | $496 |
| Conservative (37%) | $258 | $332 | $406 | $480 | $553 |
| Base Case (56.5%) | $296 | $380 | $464 | $549 | $633 |
| Bull Case (76%) | $333 | $428 | $523 | $618 | $713 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.01 | 0.62 | 0.24 | 2.41 | 0.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.07 | 3.25 | 0.80 | 5.47 | 1.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.93 | 0.72 | 0.22 | 2.05 | 0.59 |
| P/FCF | 2.62 | 1.12 | 0.21 | 12.29 | 4.36 |
| P/FFO | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.78 | 0.29 |
| P/TBV | 1.40 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 4.45 | 2.01 |
| P/AFFO | 1.93 | 0.34 | 0.08 | 5.94 | 2.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.54 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 1.69 | 0.78 |
| Div Yield | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.09 | 1.29 | 0.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates TKC's fair value at $341.16 vs the current price of $6.35, implying +5272.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $341.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $225.85 (P10) to $321.44 (P90), with a median of $266.51.
TKC's current P/E of 10.6x compares to the industry median of 12.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -14.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
17 analysts cover TKC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TKC trades at the 4240th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TKC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 43800.0% to approximately $34. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.