MODEL VERDICT
Alpha Teknova, Inc. (TKNO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 44 industry peers | $2.01 | -6.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 44 industry peers | $2.00 | -7.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.88 | +33.5% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.61 | 3.62 | 1.57 | 5.63 | 2.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.91 | 2.80 | 1.32 | 4.74 | 1.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.24 | 7.08 | 3.24 | 15.55 | 5.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates TKNO's fair value at $2.88 vs the current price of $2.16, implying +33.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.71 (P10) to $4.31 (P90), with a median of $2.96.
TKNO's current P/E of -3.8x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -113.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover TKNO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TKNO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.