MODEL VERDICT
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $242.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $239.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $248.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $238.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $221.52 | Pending | +9.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $20046.53 | +8170.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $36872.58 | +15112.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $62113.31 | +25526.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $18875.92 | +7687.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $98890.38 | +40699.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $28320.92 | +11584.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $39438.08 | +16171.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $63218.45 | +25982.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33088.92 | +13551.7% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $27191 | $34960 | $42728 | $50497 | $58266 |
| Conservative (13%) | $28454 | $36584 | $44714 | $52844 | $60973 |
| Base Case (20.1%) | $30228 | $38865 | $47501 | $56138 | $64775 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $31990 | $41130 | $50270 | $59410 | $68550 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.85 | 5.11 | 0.16 | 7.25 | 2.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.75 | 4.27 | 0.10 | 5.37 | 1.70 |
| P/FFO | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.17 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 1.06 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 5.48 | 2.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.11 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 2.86 | 3.14 | 0.02 | 4.03 | 1.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates TM's fair value at $33088.92 vs the current price of $242.38, implying +13551.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33088.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17930.15 (P10) to $32851.59 (P90), with a median of $25168.44.
TM's current P/E of 10.5x compares to the industry median of 17.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -39.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover TM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $179.41 (range: $179.41 — $179.41), implying -26.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TM trades at the 2860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5580.0% to approximately $378. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.