MODEL VERDICT
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $188.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $192.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $217.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $213.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $210.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $24700.33 | +12989.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $66080.96 | +34917.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $61892.91 | +32697.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $78241.95 | +41361.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $269401.02 | +142659.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $21125.88 | +11094.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $35929.63 | +18939.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $69639.12 | +36802.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55239.36 | +29172.1% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $15538 | $23306 | $31075 | $38844 | $46613 |
| Conservative (13%) | $16260 | $24389 | $32519 | $40649 | $48779 |
| Base Case (20.1%) | $17273 | $25910 | $34547 | $43183 | $51820 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $18280 | $27420 | $36560 | $45700 | $54840 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.85 | 5.11 | 0.16 | 7.25 | 2.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.75 | 4.27 | 0.10 | 5.37 | 1.70 |
| P/FFO | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.17 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 1.06 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 5.48 | 2.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.11 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 2.86 | 3.14 | 0.02 | 4.03 | 1.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates TM's fair value at $55239.36 vs the current price of $188.71, implying +29172.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55239.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26647.42 (P10) to $41011.12 (P90), with a median of $33550.01.
TM's current P/E of 8.2x compares to the industry median of 17.2x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -52.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover TM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $179.41 (range: $179.41 — $179.41), implying -4.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TM trades at the 1670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10000.0% to approximately $378. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.