MODEL VERDICT
TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $44.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $40.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $38.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $38.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $34.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $60.09 | +35.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $110.32 | +148.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $48.44 | +8.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $115.25 | +159.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $96.13 | +116.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $149.62 | +236.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $308.24 | +593.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $295.20 | +563.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $48.38 | +8.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $115.25 | +159.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $128.17 | +188.2% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $32 | $39 | $45 | $52 | $58 |
| Conservative (5%) | $33 | $40 | $46 | $53 | $60 |
| Base Case (-4.6%) | $30 | $36 | $42 | $48 | $54 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $30 | $36 | $41 | $47 | $53 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.03 | 18.79 | 12.09 | 26.46 | 4.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.16 | 13.70 | 6.58 | 18.06 | 3.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.77 | 12.29 | 5.22 | 13.91 | 3.30 |
| P/FCF | 15.84 | 10.75 | 8.58 | 35.86 | 10.09 |
| P/FFO | 14.51 | 15.58 | 9.77 | 17.52 | 2.90 |
| P/TBV | 20.79 | 21.04 | 12.13 | 28.93 | 7.15 |
| P/AFFO | 17.20 | 17.88 | 11.18 | 25.07 | 4.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 33.65 | 9.03 | 5.60 | 86.91 | 34.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.08 | 1.04 | 0.57 | 1.41 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TNET's fair value at $128.17 vs the current price of $44.47, implying +188.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $128.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $90.82 (P10) to $113.66 (P90), with a median of $102.15.
TNET's current P/E of 14.1x compares to the industry median of 15.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -8.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
14 analysts cover TNET with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $68.50 (range: $62.00 — $75.00), implying +54.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TNET's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.6σ, meaning margins are 2.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 26670.0% to approximately $163. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.