Top Ships Inc. (TOPS)
Valuation Overview•Is Top Ships Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 43/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
TOPS demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (15.2% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 36.5% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41.8M | +3.8% | +15.2% | +5.4% | +37.4% | |
| EBITDA | $19.6M | — | +29.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $292K | -17.0% | -16.4% | — | +5.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-13.04 | +108.8% | -64.6% | — | -74.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $15.9M | -40.1% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 59.5% | 49.0% | 45.0% | 35.4% |
| Operating Margin | 36.5% | 35.8% | 30.8% | 15.8% |
| Net Margin | 1.2% | 12.2% | 2.8% | -13.1% |
| FCF Margin | -50.9% | -57.4% | -107.9% | -172.8% |
Total return is -84.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -109.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -80.5% | -89.8% | — |
| 1Y | -84.2% | -109.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -51.1% | -70.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -70.3% | -82.9% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -74.9% | -88.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about TOPS (TOPS) valuation, health, and returns.
TOPS valuation is being assessed using available models.
Valuation anchors are currently not available.
TOPS displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 43/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -1.2 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.3%.
TOPS returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 100.0% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +100.0% in the last 12 months.
TOPS's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +3.8% 1Y revenue growth and +108.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +15.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for TOPS include: -86.4% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.44x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.