MODEL VERDICT
Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $93.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $86.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $84.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $86.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $83.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $108.00 | +15.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $109.28 | +16.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $81.79 | -12.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $400.91 | +328.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $124.08 | +32.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $408.26 | +335.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $181.43 | +93.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $154.87 | +65.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $81.79 | -12.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $400.91 | +328.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $145.65 | +55.5% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 52× | 57× | 62× (Current) | 67× | 72× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $80 | $88 | $95 | $103 | $111 |
| Conservative (5%) | $82 | $90 | $98 | $106 | $114 |
| Base Case (-12.7%) | $69 | $75 | $82 | $88 | $95 |
| Bull Case (-17%) | $65 | $71 | $78 | $84 | $90 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.82 | 4.74 | 4.35 | 44.38 | 23.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.67 | 4.14 | 3.55 | 12.33 | 4.91 |
| P/FCF | 4.99 | 3.75 | 1.85 | 12.34 | 3.87 |
| P/FFO | 5.81 | 3.07 | 3.02 | 11.34 | 4.79 |
| P/TBV | 1.06 | 0.54 | 0.33 | 3.60 | 1.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.83 | 0.43 | 0.27 | 2.84 | 0.92 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.65 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates TPC's fair value at $145.65 vs the current price of $93.68, implying +55.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $145.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $115.82 (P10) to $180.01 (P90), with a median of $147.35.
TPC's current P/E of 62.0x compares to the industry median of 54.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +14.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.8x over 3 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
13 analysts cover TPC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.50 (range: $26.00 — $27.00), implying -71.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TPC trades at the 6920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TPC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.