MODEL VERDICT
TPG Inc. (TPG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $44.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $43.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $44.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $43.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $38.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $38.25 | -13.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $73.22 | +65.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $78.65 | +77.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $38.25 | -13.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $44.77 | +1.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $116.25 | +162.9% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $38 | $42 | $46 | $49 | $53 |
| Conservative (5%) | $39 | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| Base Case (-43.4%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (-59%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 408.25 | 196.23 | 52.76 | 975.78 | 496.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 302.66 | 161.69 | 12.95 | 874.30 | 389.87 |
| P/FCF | 23.75 | 19.50 | 6.26 | 45.47 | 19.95 |
| P/FFO | 87.63 | 87.99 | 30.27 | 144.27 | 49.17 |
| P/TBV | 5.30 | 4.65 | 3.16 | 8.74 | 2.65 |
| P/AFFO | 122.95 | 123.62 | 69.91 | 175.31 | 52.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.90 | 3.43 | 2.36 | 6.38 | 1.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.98 | 6.56 | 2.09 | 8.74 | 2.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates TPG's fair value at $116.25 vs the current price of $44.22, implying +162.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $116.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.42 (P10) to $249.16 (P90), with a median of $134.70.
TPG's current P/E of 36.5x compares to the industry median of 31.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +15.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 408.3x over 3 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
17 analysts cover TPG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $65.00 (range: $47.00 — $80.00), implying +47.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TPG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (29.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 823410.0% to approximately $3685. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.