MODEL VERDICT
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $46.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $46.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $46.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $46.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $46.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $27.45 | -41.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $22.05 | -52.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $28.68 | -38.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $19.78 | -57.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $29.28 | -37.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $19.00 | -59.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 10 industry peers | $8.57 | -81.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $40.07 | -14.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $37.40 | -20.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $28.67 | -38.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $20.14 | -57.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.57 | -36.9% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $36 | $42 | $47 | $53 | $58 |
| Conservative (5%) | $37 | $43 | $49 | $54 | $60 |
| Base Case (4.6%) | $37 | $43 | $48 | $54 | $60 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $38 | $43 | $49 | $55 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.29 | 7.95 | 3.36 | 11.57 | 2.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.86 | 8.77 | 3.23 | 12.78 | 3.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.49 | 8.07 | 3.10 | 12.22 | 2.84 |
| P/FCF | 10.24 | 7.71 | 3.97 | 21.05 | 7.45 |
| P/FFO | 7.52 | 7.19 | 3.20 | 9.98 | 2.38 |
| P/TBV | 1.06 | 1.08 | 0.72 | 1.39 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 8.23 | 7.76 | 3.45 | 11.36 | 2.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.00 | 1.01 | 0.68 | 1.30 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.44 | 0.95 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TPH's fair value at $29.57 vs the current price of $46.86, implying -36.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.49 (P10) to $26.73 (P90), with a median of $24.58.
TPH's current P/E of 17.2x compares to the industry median of 10.5x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +63.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover TPH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $47.00 (range: $47.00 — $47.00), implying +0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TPH trades at the 7890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TPH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 930.0% to approximately $51. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.