MODEL VERDICT
Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $142.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $145.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $155.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $151.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $150.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $91.33 | -36.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $42.66 | -70.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $17.71 | -87.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $70.41 | -50.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $22.40 | -84.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $112.31 | -21.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $30.75 | -78.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $25.84 | -81.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $17.74 | -87.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $69.45 | -51.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $61.78 | -56.7% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 146× | 160× | 174× (Current) | 188× | 202× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $125 | $136 | $148 | $160 | $172 |
| Conservative (7%) | $128 | $140 | $152 | $164 | $176 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $132 | $144 | $157 | $170 | $182 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $136 | $149 | $162 | $175 | $188 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.99 | 12.98 | 9.49 | 155.82 | 58.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.38 | 12.44 | 9.78 | 103.58 | 37.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.33 | 10.06 | 7.79 | 48.80 | 16.03 |
| P/FCF | 18.81 | 13.55 | 9.51 | 42.95 | 11.90 |
| P/FFO | 20.18 | 10.30 | 7.66 | 69.66 | 24.36 |
| P/TBV | 30.64 | 27.49 | 19.52 | 44.91 | 12.99 |
| P/AFFO | 26.70 | 12.28 | 9.10 | 99.61 | 35.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.05 | 3.90 | 2.23 | 33.14 | 11.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.04 | 1.75 | 1.30 | 4.06 | 0.96 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TPR's fair value at $61.78 vs the current price of $142.74, implying -56.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $61.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.69 (P10) to $76.05 (P90), with a median of $61.90.
TPR's current P/E of 174.1x compares to the industry median of 21.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +706.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover TPR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $162.38 (range: $138.00 — $180.00), implying +13.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TPR trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (37.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TPR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6740.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.