MODEL VERDICT
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 104 industry peers | $9.59 | +72.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 117 industry peers | $9.07 | +63.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 110 bank peers | $9.20 | +65.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 91 industry peers | $22.44 | +303.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 105 industry peers | $9.61 | +72.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 98 analyst estimates | $9.47 | +70.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.74 | +75.1% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $8 | $9 |
| Conservative (5%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $8 | $9 |
| Base Case (-8.5%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.95 | 9.00 | 6.12 | 11.24 | 2.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.66 | 17.60 | 6.92 | 21.06 | 5.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.25 | 17.60 | 4.88 | 21.06 | 6.64 |
| P/FCF | 7.62 | 7.88 | 1.89 | 13.10 | 5.61 |
| P/FFO | 7.66 | 7.72 | 3.36 | 11.88 | 4.26 |
| P/TBV | 0.97 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.28 | 0.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.97 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.28 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 17.05 | 6.93 | 4.05 | 64.95 | 22.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TPVG's fair value at $9.74 vs the current price of $5.56, implying +75.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.18 (P10) to $14.55 (P90), with a median of $10.28.
TPVG's current P/E of 6.8x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (104 peers in the group). This represents a -42.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover TPVG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.75 (range: $5.50 — $6.00), implying +3.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TPVG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.