MODEL VERDICT
Trex Company, Inc. (TREX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $38.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $41.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $42.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $40.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $39.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $26.44 | -31.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $27.30 | -29.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $35.18 | -9.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $20.76 | -46.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $39.76 | +2.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $20.87 | -46.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $14.02 | -63.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $10.55 | -72.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $8.80 | -77.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $34.29 | -11.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $20.35 | -47.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.94 | +70.0% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $33 | $36 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (5%) | $34 | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 |
| Base Case (3.3%) | $33 | $37 | $40 | $44 | $48 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $45 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.31 | 36.54 | 19.71 | 75.02 | 18.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.91 | 27.44 | 15.44 | 48.38 | 11.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.49 | 25.54 | 12.41 | 49.87 | 12.87 |
| P/FCF | 179.48 | 88.80 | 27.93 | 672.57 | 246.62 |
| P/FFO | 34.96 | 33.21 | 14.83 | 63.88 | 17.09 |
| P/TBV | 12.89 | 12.90 | 3.75 | 22.14 | 6.23 |
| P/AFFO | 179.81 | 168.33 | 57.62 | 469.11 | 137.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.00 | 11.74 | 3.63 | 21.56 | 5.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.63 | 7.07 | 3.20 | 13.06 | 3.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TREX's fair value at $65.94 vs the current price of $38.79, implying +70.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.36 (P10) to $80.33 (P90), with a median of $51.07.
TREX's current P/E of 21.8x compares to the industry median of 19.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +10.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
31 analysts cover TREX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $44.50 (range: $32.00 — $54.00), implying +14.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (20), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TREX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19410.0% to approximately $114. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.