MODEL VERDICT
Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $94.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $89.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $93.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $92.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $83.27 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $95.53 | +1.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $79.47 | -15.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $90.02 | -4.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $93.30 | -1.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $92.31 | -2.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $111.90 | +18.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $73.19 | -22.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $139.35 | +47.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $117.37 | +24.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $89.99 | -4.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $93.31 | -1.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $105.92 | +12.2% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $84 | $91 | $98 | $105 | $112 |
| Conservative (5%) | $86 | $93 | $100 | $107 | $114 |
| Base Case (6.8%) | $88 | $95 | $102 | $109 | $116 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $90 | $97 | $104 | $111 | $119 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.36 | 32.80 | 10.89 | 44.76 | 11.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.63 | 31.54 | 22.73 | 51.56 | 9.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.17 | 24.00 | 16.41 | 32.16 | 4.98 |
| P/FCF | 56.51 | 37.07 | 27.15 | 185.17 | 57.06 |
| P/FFO | 22.02 | 22.10 | 9.50 | 34.65 | 8.06 |
| P/TBV | 169.32 | 30.61 | 16.40 | 460.95 | 252.66 |
| P/AFFO | 29.82 | 29.49 | 10.27 | 55.05 | 14.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.93 | 4.83 | 3.90 | 6.13 | 0.86 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.50 | 8.66 | 6.32 | 9.99 | 1.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRI's fair value at $105.92 vs the current price of $94.41, implying +12.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $105.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $93.19 (P10) to $137.20 (P90), with a median of $112.00.
TRI's current P/E of 28.7x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +4.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
27 analysts cover TRI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $147.10 (range: $87.00 — $183.00), implying +55.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (28.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5200.0% to approximately $143. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.