MODEL VERDICT
Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes Due 2029 (TRINI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $25.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $25.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $25.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $25.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $25.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $19.30 | -23.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $14.11 | -44.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $14.11 | -44.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $19.30 | -23.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $18.01 | -28.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.99 | -33.0% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $22 | $26 | $30 | $35 |
| Conservative (7%) | $18 | $22 | $27 | $31 | $35 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $23 | $27 | $32 | $37 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $19 | $24 | $28 | $33 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRINI's fair value at $16.99 vs the current price of $25.34, implying -33.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.78 (P10) to $17.45 (P90), with a median of $16.59.
TRINI's current P/E of 12.2x compares to the industry median of 9.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +31.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for TRINI.
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRINI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5640.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.