MODEL VERDICT
Trimble Inc. (TRMB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $68.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $67.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $69.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $66.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $64.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $97.18 | +42.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $88.02 | +28.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $104.07 | +52.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $22.63 | -66.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $86.71 | +26.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $17.69 | -74.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $11.35 | -83.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $97.66 | +42.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $98.81 | +44.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $99.29 | +45.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $22.07 | -67.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.71 | -1.0% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $59 | $64 | $70 | $75 | $80 |
| Conservative (5%) | $61 | $66 | $72 | $77 | $83 |
| Base Case (2.5%) | $59 | $65 | $70 | $75 | $81 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $60 | $65 | $71 | $76 | $81 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.65 | 42.56 | 11.60 | 44.94 | 13.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.69 | 31.30 | 8.70 | 38.65 | 9.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.20 | 25.31 | 20.51 | 31.40 | 3.95 |
| P/FCF | 45.09 | 31.48 | 20.43 | 141.05 | 42.71 |
| P/FFO | 22.90 | 23.58 | 10.06 | 32.96 | 8.48 |
| P/AFFO | 27.59 | 25.49 | 10.26 | 53.54 | 14.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.72 | 3.22 | 2.94 | 5.62 | 1.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.51 | 4.74 | 3.23 | 6.06 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRMB's fair value at $67.71 vs the current price of $68.42, implying -1.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.38 (P10) to $79.26 (P90), with a median of $72.23.
TRMB's current P/E of 39.1x compares to the industry median of 59.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -34.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover TRMB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $95.00 (range: $86.00 — $101.00), implying +38.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TRMB trades at the 3440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (33.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRMB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1930.0% to approximately $82. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.