MODEL VERDICT
Trustmark Corporation (TRMK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $44.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $44.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $45.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $44.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $44.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $52.38 | +16.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $46.18 | +2.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $54.11 | +20.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $38.54 | -14.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $52.38 | +16.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $44.00 | -2.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.72 | +10.7% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $31 | $38 | $46 | $53 | $61 |
| Conservative (5%) | $31 | $39 | $47 | $55 | $62 |
| Base Case (8.1%) | $32 | $40 | $48 | $56 | $64 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $33 | $41 | $49 | $57 | $66 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.29 | 10.88 | 9.74 | 29.84 | 7.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.15 | 10.19 | 1.77 | 72.05 | 27.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.80 | 8.62 | 1.45 | 34.02 | 13.51 |
| P/FCF | 19.61 | 11.52 | 6.44 | 50.36 | 15.66 |
| P/FFO | 10.84 | 8.93 | 8.32 | 19.19 | 3.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.61 | 1.46 | 1.32 | 2.20 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 12.75 | 10.59 | 9.14 | 25.19 | 5.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.17 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 1.44 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.88 | 2.68 | 1.86 | 3.68 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRMK's fair value at $49.72 vs the current price of $44.91, implying +10.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.82 (P10) to $53.39 (P90), with a median of $48.01.
TRMK's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -14.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
9 analysts cover TRMK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $45.50 (range: $45.50 — $45.50), implying +1.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRMK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2780.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.