MODEL VERDICT
Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $66.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $65.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $66.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $65.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $59.47 | Pending | +10.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $32.56 | -50.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $51.88 | -21.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $78.26 | +18.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $108.98 | +65.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $45.39 | -31.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $39.15 | -40.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $36.46 | -44.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $99.66 | +50.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $58 | $67 | $76 | $85 | $94 |
| Conservative (23%) | $63 | $72 | $82 | $92 | $101 |
| Base Case (35.4%) | $69 | $80 | $90 | $101 | $111 |
| Bull Case (48%) | $75 | $87 | $98 | $110 | $122 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.92 | 34.62 | 14.98 | 102.15 | 36.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.20 | 37.42 | 22.73 | 65.99 | 18.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.88 | 28.05 | 22.91 | 47.25 | 7.90 |
| P/FCF | 49.25 | 55.96 | 28.93 | 74.62 | 16.50 |
| P/FFO | 26.47 | 23.26 | 11.50 | 43.77 | 11.76 |
| P/TBV | 2.16 | 1.96 | 1.54 | 2.99 | 0.55 |
| P/AFFO | 45.77 | 30.44 | 13.08 | 100.42 | 32.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.07 | 1.93 | 1.45 | 2.93 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.32 | 16.15 | 12.66 | 27.21 | 4.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRNO's fair value at $99.66 vs the current price of $66.06, implying +50.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $99.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.14 (P10) to $162.89 (P90), with a median of $117.76.
TRNO's current P/E of 16.9x compares to the industry median of 27.8x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -39.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 52.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover TRNO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $69.60 (range: $60.00 — $79.00), implying +5.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 84.4% is 37.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (47.1%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$116. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRNO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (47.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7520.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.