MODEL VERDICT
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $103.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $99.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $96.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $96.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $91.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $173.76 | +68.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $121.75 | +17.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $167.95 | +62.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $227.15 | +119.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $173.73 | +68.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $101.22 | -2.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $157.53 | +52.3% | 100% | 100 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $66 | $85 | $104 | $123 | $142 |
| Conservative (5%) | $68 | $87 | $107 | $126 | $146 |
| Base Case (-1.5%) | $64 | $82 | $100 | $118 | $137 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $63 | $82 | $100 | $118 | $136 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.96 | 14.00 | 11.07 | 16.28 | 1.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.46 | 11.02 | 8.34 | 12.02 | 1.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.39 | 9.10 | 7.73 | 11.24 | 1.60 |
| P/FCF | 18.62 | 20.01 | 11.67 | 26.57 | 5.16 |
| P/FFO | 11.51 | 11.24 | 9.09 | 13.68 | 1.84 |
| P/TBV | 3.92 | 3.85 | 2.51 | 6.77 | 1.37 |
| P/AFFO | 12.87 | 12.60 | 10.21 | 14.91 | 1.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.96 | 2.56 | 1.90 | 4.39 | 0.94 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.42 | 3.82 | 3.13 | 5.86 | 1.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TROW's fair value at $157.53 vs the current price of $103.42, implying +52.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $157.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $130.70 (P10) to $187.16 (P90), with a median of $156.11.
TROW's current P/E of 11.2x compares to the industry median of 18.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -40.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
38 analysts cover TROW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $101.20 (range: $89.00 — $110.00), implying -2.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (24), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TROW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3810.0% to approximately $143. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.