MODEL VERDICT
TC Energy Corporation (TRP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $66.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $62.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $60.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $60.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $63.83 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $67.93 | +2.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $36.21 | -45.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $90.11 | +35.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $30.24 | -54.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $53.63 | -19.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $21.98 | -67.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $87.72 | +31.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $30.24 | -54.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.17 | -20.1% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $72 | $81 | $90 | $99 | $108 |
| Conservative (5%) | $74 | $84 | $93 | $102 | $112 |
| Base Case (0.7%) | $71 | $80 | $89 | $98 | $107 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $72 | $81 | $89 | $98 | $107 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.59 | 11.37 | 7.82 | 56.73 | 17.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.06 | 13.85 | 12.00 | 35.46 | 8.45 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.19 | 11.15 | 9.86 | 12.52 | 1.04 |
| P/FFO | 7.07 | 6.45 | 4.84 | 10.85 | 2.22 |
| P/TBV | 1.89 | 1.96 | 1.39 | 2.54 | 0.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.06 | 0.94 | 1.40 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.93 | 2.94 | 2.15 | 3.51 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRP's fair value at $53.17 vs the current price of $66.57, implying -20.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.74 (P10) to $56.34 (P90), with a median of $47.45.
TRP's current P/E of 20.4x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +0.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
19 analysts cover TRP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $62.00 (range: $62.00 — $62.00), implying -6.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TRP trades at the 6390th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (43.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9200.0% to approximately $128. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.