MODEL VERDICT
Triton International Limited (TRTN-PC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $144.09 | +476.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $128.13 | +412.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $89.89 | +259.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $172.66 | +590.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $4.82 | -80.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $63.50 | +154.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $88.87 | +255.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $79.62 | +218.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.02 | +252.1% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $18 | $27 | $36 | $45 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $19 | $28 | $37 | $46 |
| Base Case (1.2%) | $18 | $18 | $27 | $36 | $45 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $18 | $18 | $27 | $36 | $45 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.98 | 5.69 | 2.06 | 6.59 | 1.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.75 | 14.38 | 9.03 | 22.33 | 4.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.36 | 7.31 | 5.98 | 8.84 | 0.86 |
| P/FCF | 5.88 | 2.55 | 1.52 | 13.44 | 5.31 |
| P/FFO | 2.03 | 2.12 | 1.03 | 2.85 | 0.59 |
| P/TBV | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.48 | 1.08 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 8.01 | 3.17 | 2.80 | 18.69 | 7.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.45 | 0.99 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.33 | 1.36 | 0.78 | 1.80 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRTN-PC's fair value at $88.02 vs the current price of $25.00, implying +252.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $74.83 (P10) to $121.17 (P90), with a median of $98.20.
TRTN-PC's current P/E of 5.7x compares to the industry median of 20.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -72.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover TRTN-PC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 36.0% is 13.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (43.3%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$26. (2) Multiple compression: TRTN-PC trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRTN-PC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (43.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 560.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.