MODEL VERDICT
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $304.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $302.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $300.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $299.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $297.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $284.11 | -6.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $252.59 | -17.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $312.54 | +2.6% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $209.44 | -31.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $284.05 | -6.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $265.47 | -12.9% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $361.23 | +18.5% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $263.37 | -13.6% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $275.19 | -9.7% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $208 | $268 | $327 | $387 | $446 |
| Conservative (14%) | $218 | $281 | $343 | $406 | $468 |
| Base Case (21.1%) | $233 | $299 | $365 | $432 | $498 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $247 | $317 | $388 | $458 | $529 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.94 | 13.34 | 10.57 | 15.93 | 2.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.37 | 11.62 | 9.06 | 13.88 | 2.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.37 | 10.32 | 8.59 | 12.65 | 1.65 |
| P/FCF | 6.10 | 5.94 | 5.39 | 6.95 | 0.69 |
| P/FFO | 10.41 | 10.25 | 8.66 | 12.25 | 1.30 |
| P/TBV | 2.02 | 2.14 | 1.43 | 2.59 | 0.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.69 | 1.77 | 1.22 | 2.08 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.07 | 1.35 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRV's fair value at $275.19 vs the current price of $304.72, implying -9.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $275.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $260.51 (P10) to $307.86 (P90), with a median of $284.13.
TRV's current P/E of 11.1x compares to the industry median of 10.4x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +7.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
43 analysts cover TRV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $313.00 (range: $304.00 — $317.00), implying +2.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (12), Hold (27), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.9% is 3.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (9.3%), with a Z-score of +1.8σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$257. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1560.0% to approximately $257. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.