MODEL VERDICT
Tenaris S.A. (TS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $63.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $63.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $58.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $57.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $59.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $62.62 | -1.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $95.96 | +50.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $124.02 | +94.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $117.44 | +84.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $99.66 | +56.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $148.32 | +132.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $36.68 | -42.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $33.29 | -47.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $122.82 | +92.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $116.02 | +82.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $125.58 | +97.2% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $50 | $58 | $66 | $74 | $81 |
| Conservative (7%) | $52 | $59 | $67 | $75 | $83 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $53 | $61 | $70 | $78 | $86 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $55 | $63 | $72 | $80 | $89 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.68 | 9.24 | 5.22 | 17.97 | 4.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.28 | 8.54 | 4.02 | 12.36 | 2.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 94.49 | 6.94 | 3.91 | 619.63 | 231.57 |
| P/FCF | 11.79 | 9.96 | 5.42 | 26.96 | 7.74 |
| P/FFO | 36.68 | 7.84 | 4.59 | 212.10 | 77.37 |
| P/TBV | 1.28 | 1.29 | 0.94 | 1.63 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 9.31 | 9.42 | 5.32 | 14.31 | 3.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.15 | 1.19 | 0.82 | 1.48 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.72 | 1.76 | 1.38 | 1.89 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TS's fair value at $125.58 vs the current price of $63.70, implying +97.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $125.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $70.94 (P10) to $285.36 (P90), with a median of $124.30.
TS's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 33.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -48.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover TS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $56.94 (range: $49.70 — $72.00), implying -10.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TS trades at the 970th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (17.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4010.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.