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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$50.73
→
Intrinsic$21.13
-58%
$11.36$21.13$39.69
Current price reflects execution expectations above 17% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $11 → Bull $40. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $40).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 13% | 15% | 17% | 19% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $28 | $31 | $34 | $38 |
| 10% | $17 | $19 | $21 | $24 |
| 12% | $11 | $12 | $14 | $16 |
| 14% | $7 | $8 | $9 | $11 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($40) with 20% growth, 9% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($11) implies 78% downside at 14% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 58% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($40) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$744.80M
Year 2$871.13M
Year 3$1.02B
Year 4$1.19B
Year 5$1.39B
Terminal$20.51B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate17.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$636.79MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.