Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$51.84
→
Intrinsic$18.48
-64%
$6.96$18.48$40.36
Market implies 35% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 17% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $52, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (35%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $7 → Bull $40. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 13% | 15% | 17% | 19% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $26 | $30 | $34 | $38 |
| 10% | $13 | $16 | $18 | $21 |
| 12% | $6 | $8 | $10 | $12 |
| 14% | $1 | $3 | $5 | $6 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($40) with 20% growth, 9% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($7) implies 87% downside at 14% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 35% growth expectations vs 17% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 64% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$866.09M
Year 2$1.01B
Year 3$1.18B
Year 4$1.39B
Year 5$1.62B
Terminal$23.85B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate17.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$740.49MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.