MODEL VERDICT
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $51.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $52.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $55.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $54.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $51.51 | Below threshold | +4.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $46.25 | -10.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $30.73 | -40.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $60.33 | +16.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $32.08 | -38.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $29.84 | -42.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $13.37 | -74.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $14.15 | -72.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $29.34 | -43.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $37.07 | -28.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $60.33 | +16.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $32.19 | -37.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.42 | -22.0% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $45 | $49 | $54 | $58 | $62 |
| Conservative (7%) | $46 | $50 | $55 | $59 | $64 |
| Base Case (10.1%) | $48 | $52 | $57 | $61 | $66 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $63 | $68 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.51 | 23.17 | 20.05 | 27.71 | 2.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.15 | 20.42 | 18.71 | 24.57 | 2.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.75 | 16.48 | 14.81 | 19.45 | 1.79 |
| P/FCF | 36.14 | 40.68 | 15.00 | 54.16 | 14.23 |
| P/FFO | 17.48 | 17.09 | 14.88 | 21.81 | 2.25 |
| P/TBV | 12.00 | 12.55 | 7.82 | 14.31 | 2.66 |
| P/AFFO | 33.48 | 37.46 | 20.86 | 43.26 | 8.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.83 | 10.98 | 7.20 | 13.80 | 2.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.73 | 1.71 | 1.35 | 2.17 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TSCO's fair value at $40.42 vs the current price of $51.84, implying -22.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.17 (P10) to $47.86 (P90), with a median of $41.37.
TSCO's current P/E of 25.2x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -14.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.5x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
50 analysts cover TSCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $59.00 (range: $50.00 — $67.00), implying +13.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (22), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TSCO trades at the 4170th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TSCO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2870.0% to approximately $67. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.