MODEL VERDICT
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $390.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $376.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $400.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $391.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $349.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $17.92 | -95.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $38.76 | -90.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $24.07 | -93.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $32.20 | -91.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $45.33 | -88.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $32.40 | -91.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $80.79 | -79.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $41.43 | -89.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $31.49 | -91.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $24.14 | -93.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $32.23 | -91.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $150.51 | -61.5% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 304× | 333× | 362× (Current) | 391× | 420× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $379 | $415 | $452 | $488 | $524 |
| Conservative (25%) | $411 | $450 | $489 | $529 | $568 |
| Base Case (38.8%) | $456 | $499 | $543 | $586 | $630 |
| Bull Case (52%) | $500 | $548 | $595 | $643 | $691 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 340.40 | 207.12 | 34.03 | 1120.10 | 405.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 748.70 | 176.36 | 30.02 | 4119.15 | 1491.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 98.80 | 113.32 | 23.99 | 175.65 | 57.52 |
| P/FCF | 229.54 | 255.08 | 56.68 | 394.48 | 127.62 |
| P/FFO | 113.24 | 113.03 | 26.21 | 251.14 | 79.01 |
| P/TBV | 20.67 | 19.24 | 9.45 | 39.94 | 11.68 |
| P/AFFO | 618.25 | 620.90 | 46.69 | 1222.00 | 555.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 20.06 | 19.15 | 9.13 | 37.77 | 11.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.54 | 14.46 | 3.01 | 24.23 | 8.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TSLA's fair value at $150.51 vs the current price of $390.82, implying -61.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $150.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $82.29 (P10) to $180.37 (P90), with a median of $129.68.
TSLA's current P/E of 361.9x compares to the industry median of 22.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +1523.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 340.4x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
81 analysts cover TSLA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $450.45 (range: $360.00 — $548.00), implying +15.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (34), Sell (16), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TSLA trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (340.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TSLA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (8.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10900.0% to approximately $817. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.