MODEL VERDICT
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $402.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $411.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $417.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $425.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $445.01 | Below threshold | -6.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $13.84 | -96.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $35.90 | -91.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $18.34 | -95.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $18.05 | -95.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $15.23 | -96.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $28.52 | -92.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $30.90 | -92.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $38.62 | -90.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $27.75 | -93.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $18.20 | -95.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $14.96 | -96.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $162.22 | -59.7% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 313× | 343× | 373× (Current) | 403× | 433× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $390 | $428 | $465 | $503 | $540 |
| Conservative (25%) | $423 | $464 | $504 | $545 | $585 |
| Base Case (38.8%) | $469 | $514 | $559 | $604 | $649 |
| Bull Case (52%) | $515 | $564 | $614 | $663 | $712 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 340.40 | 207.12 | 34.03 | 1120.10 | 405.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 748.83 | 176.36 | 30.02 | 4119.15 | 1491.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 98.87 | 113.32 | 23.99 | 175.65 | 57.59 |
| P/FCF | 229.65 | 255.88 | 56.68 | 394.48 | 127.64 |
| P/FFO | 113.31 | 113.03 | 26.21 | 251.14 | 79.06 |
| P/TBV | 20.68 | 19.30 | 9.45 | 39.94 | 11.68 |
| P/AFFO | 618.95 | 620.90 | 46.69 | 1222.00 | 556.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 20.07 | 19.17 | 9.13 | 37.77 | 11.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.55 | 14.46 | 3.01 | 24.23 | 8.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TSLA's fair value at $162.22 vs the current price of $402.51, implying -59.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $162.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.86 (P10) to $187.21 (P90), with a median of $132.96.
TSLA's current P/E of 372.7x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +2095.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 340.4x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
80 analysts cover TSLA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $458.67 (range: $300.00 — $600.00), implying +14.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (32), Sell (17), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TSLA trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (340.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TSLA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (8.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10090.0% to approximately $809. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.