MODEL VERDICT
Trane Technologies plc (TT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $486.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $486.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $476.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $462.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $465.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $392.44 | -19.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $470.74 | -3.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $491.87 | +1.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $418.57 | -14.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $577.36 | +18.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $445.16 | -8.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $1248.53 | +156.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $456.36 | -6.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $419.66 | -13.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $490.66 | +0.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $418.57 | -14.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $426.58 | -12.3% | 100% | 79 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $450 | $494 | $538 | $581 | $625 |
| Conservative (19%) | $480 | $527 | $573 | $620 | $666 |
| Base Case (29.8%) | $522 | $573 | $623 | $674 | $724 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $565 | $619 | $674 | $728 | $783 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.52 | 29.98 | 17.87 | 41.24 | 7.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.20 | 23.01 | 17.95 | 25.50 | 3.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.42 | 20.40 | 15.05 | 22.72 | 3.08 |
| P/FCF | 28.46 | 30.40 | 15.13 | 35.85 | 6.62 |
| P/FFO | 24.69 | 27.35 | 14.83 | 30.71 | 5.82 |
| P/AFFO | 28.37 | 31.09 | 17.43 | 35.18 | 6.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.51 | 7.78 | 3.43 | 11.27 | 2.68 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.17 | 3.18 | 1.93 | 4.25 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TT's fair value at $426.58 vs the current price of $486.70, implying -12.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $426.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $394.83 (P10) to $452.88 (P90), with a median of $423.47.
TT's current P/E of 37.5x compares to the industry median of 37.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -1.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
25 analysts cover TT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $518.50 (range: $450.00 — $585.00), implying +6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 13.4% is 3.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (15.1%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$432. (2) Multiple compression: TT trades at the 7060th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.5×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1120.0% to approximately $432. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.