MODEL VERDICT
TETRA Technologies, Inc. (TTI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $9.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $9.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $8.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $8.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $8.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $5.91 | -37.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $5.50 | -41.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $0.55 | -94.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $3.31 | -65.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $6.58 | -30.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $1.94 | -79.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $7.60 | -19.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $7.73 | -18.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $0.54 | -94.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $3.02 | -68.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.95 | -37.1% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 358× | 392× | 426× (Current) | 460× | 494× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 126.68 | 40.14 | 4.37 | 422.07 | 198.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 79.47 | 23.32 | 12.84 | 313.69 | 131.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.56 | 9.74 | 7.67 | 25.56 | 6.24 |
| P/FCF | 28.53 | 18.51 | 2.28 | 64.81 | 32.45 |
| P/FFO | 15.46 | 11.04 | 3.29 | 31.58 | 11.13 |
| P/TBV | 4.24 | 4.85 | 2.07 | 6.11 | 1.66 |
| P/AFFO | 259.51 | 27.01 | 5.68 | 745.85 | 421.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.04 | 3.65 | 1.51 | 4.48 | 1.34 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.29 | 2.01 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TTI's fair value at $5.95 vs the current price of $9.46, implying -37.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.53 (P10) to $9.90 (P90), with a median of $6.46.
TTI's current P/E of 426.1x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +1634.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 126.7x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
31 analysts cover TTI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.25 (range: $11.50 — $13.00), implying +29.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TTI trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (126.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TTI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6790.0% to approximately $3. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.