MODEL VERDICT
Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (TUSK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $49.53 | +1921.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $70.73 | +2786.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $8.88 | +262.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $5.36 | +118.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $77.24 | +3052.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $293.70 | +11887.6% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 10.65 | 9.66 | 1.90 | 20.40 | 9.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.43 | 10.12 | 1.43 | 21.74 | 7.39 |
| P/FCF | 349.32 | 17.77 | 0.88 | 1562.43 | 681.44 |
| P/FFO | 4.09 | 3.84 | 2.27 | 6.41 | 1.99 |
| P/TBV | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.17 | 1.25 | 0.40 |
| P/AFFO | 16.71 | 8.73 | 4.94 | 44.45 | 18.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.15 | 1.07 | 0.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.16 | 1.13 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates TUSK's fair value at $293.70 vs the current price of $2.45, implying +11887.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $293.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.06 (P10) to $1007.23 (P90), with a median of $318.37.
TUSK's current P/E of -0.6x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -102.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover TUSK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $7.00 — $7.00), implying +185.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TUSK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.