MODEL VERDICT
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $123.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $119.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $113.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $116.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $103.86 | Below threshold | +11.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $99.69 | -19.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $116.39 | -5.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $57.44 | -53.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $30.47 | -75.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $101.79 | -17.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $59.14 | -52.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $110.80 | -10.1% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $116 | $129 | $142 | $155 | $167 |
| Conservative (22%) | $125 | $138 | $152 | $166 | $180 |
| Base Case (33.8%) | $137 | $152 | $167 | $182 | $197 |
| Bull Case (46%) | $149 | $165 | $182 | $198 | $215 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.14 | 53.15 | 28.45 | 91.87 | 20.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.42 | 35.37 | 17.98 | 53.30 | 10.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.77 | 25.58 | 19.65 | 37.36 | 6.31 |
| P/FCF | 28.74 | 28.24 | 20.50 | 39.41 | 6.16 |
| P/FFO | 34.99 | 35.13 | 21.74 | 52.13 | 9.55 |
| P/TBV | 12.74 | 12.06 | 7.99 | 17.40 | 4.08 |
| P/AFFO | 36.70 | 36.35 | 22.60 | 54.44 | 9.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.02 | 3.21 | 1.58 | 4.40 | 0.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.60 | 13.17 | 9.36 | 19.28 | 3.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TW's fair value at $110.80 vs the current price of $123.25, implying -10.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $110.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $91.31 (P10) to $132.02 (P90), with a median of $110.90.
TW's current P/E of 32.6x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +23.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.1x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
28 analysts cover TW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $141.67 (range: $112.00 — $203.00), implying +14.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 39.6% is 13.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (26.3%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$138. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1210.0% to approximately $138. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.