MODEL VERDICT
Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 60 analyst estimates | $20.29 | +16.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 56 industry peers | $35.26 | +102.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 55 industry peers | $18.31 | +5.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 56 industry peers | $14.45 | -17.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 55 industry peers | $17.57 | +0.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 64 industry peers | $92.52 | +431.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 64 industry peers | $95.29 | +447.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 55 industry peers | $18.31 | +5.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.20 | +44.6% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.50 | 14.00 | 12.46 | 21.55 | 4.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.58 | 11.37 | 11.18 | 59.84 | 21.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.72 | 8.91 | 6.63 | 10.66 | 1.51 |
| P/FCF | 29.49 | 20.55 | 6.52 | 70.34 | 28.40 |
| P/FFO | 10.07 | 7.78 | 6.50 | 17.77 | 4.70 |
| P/TBV | 1.24 | 1.15 | 0.85 | 1.68 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 14.52 | 15.35 | 8.51 | 18.88 | 4.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 1.05 | 0.74 | 1.53 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.81 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates TWIN's fair value at $25.20 vs the current price of $17.42, implying +44.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.56 (P10) to $29.30 (P90), with a median of $25.87.
TWIN's current P/E of -124.4x compares to the industry median of 33.7x (52 peers in the group). This represents a -469.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.5x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover TWIN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TWIN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.