MODEL VERDICT
TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $59.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $59.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $58.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $59.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $59.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $57.56 | -2.8% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $63.78 | +7.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $48.76 | -17.6% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $57.31 | -3.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $47.40 | -19.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $224.19 | +278.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $40.71 | -31.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $57.54 | -2.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.55 | +12.4% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $52 | $58 | $64 | $70 | $76 |
| Conservative (15%) | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 | $80 |
| Base Case (22.6%) | $59 | $65 | $72 | $79 | $85 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $63 | $70 | $77 | $84 | $91 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.88 | 23.67 | 18.42 | 52.64 | 13.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.69 | 23.93 | 20.30 | 38.21 | 6.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.22 | 12.27 | 11.61 | 13.06 | 0.54 |
| P/FFO | 8.23 | 8.06 | 6.69 | 10.75 | 1.35 |
| P/TBV | 2.10 | 2.06 | 1.69 | 2.76 | 0.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.49 | 2.32 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.26 | 2.23 | 1.85 | 2.79 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates TXNM's fair value at $66.55 vs the current price of $59.20, implying +12.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.87 (P10) to $66.01 (P90), with a median of $58.93.
TXNM's current P/E of 22.2x compares to the industry median of 21.6x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +2.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.9x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover TXNM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $53.31 (range: $47.00 — $61.25), implying -9.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TXNM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (8.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3880.0% to approximately $82. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.