TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO)
Valuation Overview•Is TXO Partners, L.P. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 18/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
TXO struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (18.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-14.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.3M | +45.5% | +18.6% | +30.5% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$48.7M | — | +96.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$74.3M | -192.0% | -41.3% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.35 | -166.2% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $32.2M | +6.7% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | -4.5% | 29.8% | 34.6% | 31.5% |
| Operating Margin | -14.5% | -9.8% | -4.1% | -27.2% |
| Net Margin | -27.7% | -8.1% | -0.9% | -25.7% |
| FCF Margin | -40.4% | -24.3% | -21.4% | -16.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.05 | $-1.35 | -2600.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.10 | $-0.57 | -670.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.01 | $0.08 | +700.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.02 | $-0.00 | +86.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.36 | $0.24 | -33.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.39 | $0.26 | -33.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.07 | $0.01 | -85.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.19 | $0.09 | -52.6% |
Total return is -12.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -37.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +18.7% | +9.3% | — |
| 1Y | -12.8% | -37.8% | +9.2% |
| 3YCAGR | -4.0% | -23.3% | +29.0% |
| 5YCAGR | -3.0% | -15.2% | +29.8% |
| 10YCAGR | -1.5% | -15.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, TXO Partners, L.P. appears Limited: Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
TXO Partners, L.P. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $3.83 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $18.00 (implying +45.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
TXO Partners, L.P. displays poor financial health with a composite quality score of 18/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.9 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 1.7%.
TXO Partners, L.P. pays a 16.2% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
TXO Partners, L.P.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +45.5% 1Y revenue growth and -166.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +18.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Strong Buy based on 2 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +45.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for TXO Partners, L.P. include: -36.2% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.07x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.