MODEL VERDICT
TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $12.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $12.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $12.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $12.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $10.50 | Below threshold | +17.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $6.72 | -46.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $8.93 | -28.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $9.06 | -27.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $20.18 | +61.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $17.64 | +40.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $9.06 | -27.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.74 | -30.2% | 100% | 43 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 | $16 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates TXO's fair value at $8.74 vs the current price of $12.52, implying -30.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 43/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.27 (P10) to $11.58 (P90), with a median of $9.41.
TXO's current P/E of 19.3x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +38.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover TXO with a consensus rating of Strong Buy. The consensus price target is $18.50 (range: $18.00 — $19.00), implying +47.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TXO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.