MODEL VERDICT
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $158.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $159.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $165.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $163.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $163.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $94.30 | -40.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $119.58 | -24.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $127.48 | -19.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $102.95 | -35.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $221.39 | +39.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $155.37 | -1.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $51.97 | -67.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $122.25 | -22.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $66.08 | -58.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $127.82 | -19.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $112.42 | -29.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $159.31 | +0.6% | 100% | 81 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $140 | $154 | $169 | $183 | $197 |
| Conservative (14%) | $147 | $162 | $177 | $192 | $206 |
| Base Case (21.3%) | $157 | $173 | $188 | $204 | $220 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $167 | $183 | $200 | $217 | $233 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.71 | 26.92 | 22.89 | 173.69 | 56.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 55.69 | 22.38 | 21.00 | 254.07 | 87.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.40 | 15.73 | 13.56 | 41.85 | 10.05 |
| P/FCF | 33.31 | 24.97 | 21.82 | 71.84 | 17.87 |
| P/FFO | 19.52 | 16.82 | 13.77 | 36.63 | 7.78 |
| P/TBV | 7.02 | 6.71 | 4.96 | 10.14 | 1.81 |
| P/AFFO | 48.35 | 44.25 | 36.52 | 73.91 | 13.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.04 | 5.83 | 4.29 | 8.80 | 1.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.83 | 1.77 | 1.45 | 2.28 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TXRH's fair value at $159.31 vs the current price of $158.29, implying +0.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $159.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $125.09 (P10) to $209.05 (P90), with a median of $162.88.
TXRH's current P/E of 24.5x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +24.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.7x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
43 analysts cover TXRH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $191.64 (range: $165.00 — $210.00), implying +21.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (26), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TXRH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8280.0% to approximately $289. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.