MODEL VERDICT
Tri-Continental Corporation (TY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $34.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $34.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $34.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $33.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $50.32 | +46.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 3 industry peers | $39.51 | +15.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 3 bank peers | $41.79 | +22.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $44.13 | +28.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.35 | +20.7% | 100% | 74 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $25 | $25 | $38 | $51 | $63 |
| Conservative (5%) | $26 | $26 | $39 | $52 | $65 |
| Base Case (-0.5%) | $25 | $25 | $37 | $49 | $62 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $25 | $25 | $37 | $49 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.51 | 5.10 | 4.16 | 7.82 | 1.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.51 | 5.10 | 4.16 | 7.81 | 1.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.68 | 5.27 | 4.16 | 7.81 | 1.37 |
| P/TBV | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.89 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.89 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.49 | 5.09 | 4.15 | 7.77 | 1.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates TY's fair value at $41.35 vs the current price of $34.25, implying +20.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.09 (P10) to $43.55 (P90), with a median of $39.79.
TY's current P/E of 5.5x compares to the industry median of 8.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -31.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.5x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for TY.
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TY trades at the 620th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (99.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20.0% to approximately $34. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.